Will The Ceasefire Crowd Finally Claim A Pro-Trump Victory In Michigan?

Anti-Israeli activists have been hard at work trying to convince people to not for Biden to "teach the Dems a lesson."

Today is the Michigan primary and the ceasefire crowd is giddy with anticipation. After failing to make any kind of impression in the Democratic primaries (or anywhere else other than social media), Michigan might be their big chance. Maybe.

Michigan Muslims have putting in a lot of effort to deliver a black eye to Biden for the last several weeks:

Some Michigan Arabs and Muslims have launched an “Abandon Biden” campaign — part of a broader national movement still getting off the ground — to ensure that those in their community show up to cast their vote, but not for Biden.

In New Hampshire, the protest vote was a write-in for “ceasefire.” That got just 1497 votes out of a little over 120,000 ballots cast. In Michigan, the protest vote will be “Uncommitted.” So that’s what we’re looking for.

The press has been really excited about this for obvious reasons. Trump winning 59% or less of the vote has been hailed as a stunning and breathtaking victory for the future convict. But Biden? If Biden “only” wins 85% of the vote, it will generate a week’s worth of “Biden Is Doomed!” headlines.

I can’t quite decide what the cutoff will be here. 5% for Uncommitted? 2%? 1%? Or will the press run with literally any number of “Uncommitted” ballots as an omen that Biden will lose not just Michigan, but every single state?

“500 people cast “Uncommitted” votes against Joe Biden out of 100,000 ballots. It’s time for Biden to step aside.”

If you don’t think that headline already exists on a laptop in the NYT’s office, you’re delusional.

And maybe Biden will take a hit in Michigan. The state has almost a quarter of a million Muslims. Enough of them are religiously extreme enough to ban pride flags and join Republican fascists in banning books. Frankly, If the GOP hadn’t spent so much time and effort demonizing them, a lot of Michigan Muslims would be quite happy in today’s Republican Party with its theocratic agenda.

But one has to wonder how many Muslims are willing to slit their own throats just to “own the libs?” Sure, Republicans are focused on hurting the trans community and banning abortion right now. But the first thing Trump did as president was ban Muslims from coming into the country. Fascists always come for the Jews eventually, but hunting down Muslims is never far behind.

So…predictions? I can’t possibly know how the protest vote will go today. I can, however, predict how the press react. Biden winning with 90+% of the vote yet again will be all but ignored while we are treated to another round of headlines touting Trump’s miraculous power.¹

On the other hand, Biden winning by “Not Enough” will be the top story tomorrow and for the rest of the week. “Not Enough” will be extremely subjective but various outlets will strive to outdo each other over who can be the hardest on Biden. You know, to show off their journalistic integrity. “An incumbent can’t win with just 79% of the vote!!!”² they’ll say while refusing to talk about Trump the incumbent’s sub-60% wins.

I can also predict how the ceasefire crowd will react if their protest fizzles again: They’ll claim victory anyway and the suspiciously well-funded and organized “grassroots” movement will redouble its efforts to disrupt the Democratic primaries. The likelihood of there being violence at the convention will go through the roof. Anything to generate “DEMS IN DISARRAY” headlines.

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I would very much love to be wrong. I would love for Biden to dominate yet again and for the press to say, “Welp! This was the ceasefire movement’s best shot at making themselves a force in the race and they didn’t. This is not going to have an impact on the general election.” But they will never do that. The only way the press will respond is if it’s negative news for Biden and the Democratic Party. We’ll revisit this tomorrow and see how it goes.

As for the ceasefire crowd? Here’s your periodic reminder that they are not really interested in a ceasefire.³ There may be a ceasefire in place by this time next week which is what they claim to want. If it becomes permanent, the protests will continue anyway. They’ll just move the goalposts and find a new reason to not vote for Biden. That was always the point.

There are 251 days until the 2024 election. Vote blue like your life depends on it.

1. Never EVER forget that last year, the press was adamant that Biden had to take his challengers seriously because they were Very Serious People. So many Very Serious challengers was a sign of how weak Biden was.

Now that they’ve all flamed out, the press is pretending Biden is being coronated so who cares if he’s winning by so much?

2. I find it very unlikely it will be that low but like I said, the number will almost certainly not matter. The press is champing at the bit to push this narrative.

3. Although that probably does not hold true for most of the Muslim community. I’m sure they would very much like it if the fighting stopped. The rest of the ceasefire crowd? The cosplay socialists and their ilk? They don’t give a flying fuck about Palestinians dying.