You Still Have Time To Prepare Before Trump's Oil Shock Devastates The Economy

Is it a recession if the press doesn't say it is?

The legacy media has abandoned us in favor of sucking up to oligarchs and fascism. Find voices you trust (other than me) and subscribe where you can. Independent voices like the Opinionated Ogre will be needed in the coming days, and we require your support. This newsletter is free, but for $5 a month or just $50 a year (a 17% discount!), you can keep the lights on.

As we enter the third month of Trump’s “two-week war,” we have passed the point where we can avoid the oil shock. We are seeing increasingly hysterical articles on Substack warning of societal collapse and famine. These are clickbait, and I find them offensive. My personal favorite are the ones who are pretending we’re going to run out of oil, as if the Strait of Hormuz is where we get all of our oil instead of 10-20% of it. We’re heading for Mad Max territory, baby!

But, no. We are not heading towards full societal collapse, even under this regime of dumbfuck fascist pedophiles.

On the other hand, we are just about out of mitigation efforts. We’re just pretending we aren’t, and everything is fine. Sure, gas prices are kind of high, and prices have been creeping up. But have things really changed for the average American? Why, the economy is still limping along, and the stock market is doing awesome! It’s almost back to its all-time high!

We’re creating jobs and the rich are doing just fine, and isn’t that what really matters? The legacy press is a little nervous, but hey, things don’t look that bad right now. Why, the big banks aren’t even sure if there’s going to be a recession!

Just to be clear: If you have money with Goldman Sachs, you should move it. They are very bad at economic forecasts if they think we are only facing a 25% chance of a recession.

Trump’s oil shock is going to hit sometime in June or July. If we’re very very lucky, it will be delayed until August, but I wouldn’t want to bet on that. It’s going to hit hard, and it’s going to hit fast because, for some insane reason, the legacy press is pretending it’s not coming at all, so the general public really doesn’t know about it.

Too many of the people who do it see it coming are, just as inexplicably, couching it in terms of Armageddon. They’re predicting so much chaos and destruction that people, understandably, are tuning them out. Fearmongering clickbait may get clicks on your article, but it will not encourage readers to act.

I am not pretending that nothing is coming, and I am definitely not predicting the Apocalypse. I am, however, telling you that things are going to suck in the near future. A few months before Covid, I told people to start stocking up on food and to pull money out of the bank. It didn’t occur to me to buy toilet paper because who knew people were going to panic buy that into oblivion for three or four months?¹

So, here we are again, with me warning you that you need to prepare for some rough waters ahead. Buy shelf-stable foods. Rice, beans, canned meats. Flour and yeast and salt and sugar. Peanut butter, crackers, pasta, jars of sauce, etc. Here’s a helpful list and why these foods are good.

There are two things happening at the same time:

1. Diesel is going to get much more expensive, which means shipping everything will get much more expensive. Thus, prices will go up on everything, everywhere. There will be fuel shortages, which means some trucks will not go out. A smart and competent government would prioritize getting food to grocery stores over golf clubs to sporting goods stores. But we do not have a smart and competent government. It’s going to be a shitshow run by drunken clowns on meth. What could go wrong?

2. The fertilizer problem - at least one-third of the world’s fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Growing season is already underway, and the window for fertilizing crops has passed. Fertilizing them later will not make up for the lost time at the beginning. That’s just how plants work. So there will be fewer crops later this summer and in the Fall. Parts of the world are going to experience famine. We won’t, but there will be less, and what there is will be much more expensive. Buy whatever food you can store now, before prices start to skyrocket and shelves start to thin out.

Now, when Trump’s oil shock hits, the economy, already wobbling, will go into a free-fall. I’m sure Silicon Valley will continue to pump hundreds of billions into their data centers in their insane pursuit of a godlike supreme artificial intelligence that will make them immortal, but that will not be enough to keep the economy afloat.

And, no, I am not kidding about the immortal thing. I really wish I were:

Part of this bizarre complacency we are watching unfold is that companies have built more robust supply chains because of how Covid blindsided the world. Before, everything was purchased and moved on an “as-needed” basis, and that proved to be disastrous. Now, companies keep stock on hand in case of a disruption so they can run on that for a while. No need to worry, everything is fine! As long as the emergency doesn’t last too long. Like, say, less than three months.

And to be fair, no one could have anticipated some fucking imbecile starting a war that would cut off 20% of the global oil supply, one-third of the global fertilizer, and an enormous amount of the global plastic supply. A war that appears to have no end date and was started with no warning or plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, even though any moron with 30 minutes of regional history under their belt could have told you Iran would close the Strait immediately.

So, here we are, just weeks away from an economic time bomb the press is studiously pretending isn’t there. When it detonates, how, exactly, do they intend to protect Trump from the consequences? That is, after all, what they appear to be doing right now. From the beginning of the war, the press has barely talked about what would happen if the war lasted more than a few weeks. They absolutely did not talk about what would happen if it lasted more than a month. We’re entering month three, and they are still barely acknowledging what the long-term impact will be, much less what is about to happen and can no longer be avoided, even if Iran agreed to open the Strait right this very second (which they absolutely will not fucking do).

I can only conclude the fix is in and the order has gone out to shield the regime from the consequences of its own stupidity. Something the legacy press has become quite adept at over the years. We have a resurgence of deadly childhood diseases that were effectively eradicated, and it barely makes the headlines for more than a few hours. We literally do not know how many women have died from being denied reproductive healthcare because the legacy press can’t seem to find the time or resources to compile a list. Literally hundreds of Republicans have been outed as pedophiles in the last several years, giving the Catholic Church a real run for its money in the category of “Institutions That Should Be Burned To The Ground To Protect Children.” For some reason, the legacy press hasn’t been able to connect the myriad dots into a cohesive picture.

The unifying problem with these stories is that they cannot be blamed on Democrats. At all. Without a feasible path to accusing “both sides” of causing the pain and suffering, the press would prefer not to talk about them. And so it will be when Trump’s oil shock hits the economy like a sledgehammer.

Will there be gas lines? Maybe. There are a lot more EVs on the road these days, so it might not be as brutal as it was in the 1970s. We also produce a lot more oil domestically than we used to. Still, it’s going to be harsh. Watch for lots of stories about California struggling. Less about Florida nd Texas, though.

Watch for stories about stores in New York City having empty shelves. Less stories about rural hospitals running short on supplies. Any way the press can make it look like Democrats are failing to meet the challenges of Trump’s disaster will be pushed to the front, while the regime’s failures will be downplayed. But you can only paper over reality for so long. Everyone will know what is happening and why. No matter what Fox News says, Joe Biden did not close the Strait of Hormuz.

In the coming weeks, you will be confronted with some people telling you everything is fine and others that this is literally the end of civilization. Both are lying to you. Asia was hit with their oil shock weeks ago, and it hasn’t collapsed into fire and brimstone. Please note the press has barely mentioned what they’re going through. Europe will have its oil shock in the coming weeks and, again, they will not collapse and, again, the press will somehow manage to barely notice it.

And then it will be our turn. Ignore the fearmongers and ignore the liars telling you everything is normal. You still have time to prepare, and knowing what is coming strips it of its power to terrorize and paralyze. My job is to spook you enough to get your ass into gear, not to freeze you into inaction, and absolutely not to lull you into ignoring what’s coming. Trump has fucked us all, but that doesn’t mean you have no options. There’s a lot you can do, and you still have the time to do it. So get moving!

I write to help you cope with the fear and anger threatening to overwhelm you every day. If this newsletter gets you through these dark times, please consider becoming a contributing supporter for only $5 a month or just $50 a year (a 17% discount!). Thank you for everything!

There are only 175 days until the midterms, and the regime is panicking. They’re afraid of us. Keep making them afraid every single day. Remember, you are never alone. We beat the fascists once. We will fucking do it again.

1. Yes, you should be buying toilet paper because people are going to panic. Again. Better yet, get a bidet. You’ll use very little toilet paper.